New Year 18 sale property market transaction is still light buyers mostly “not in a hurry”

Property developers are all hoping for a rebound in the market, but the reality seems to be disappointing.Recently, a number of industry institutions released research reports showing that in January 2022, the property market is still in the cooling channel, the new home transaction market is weak.Among them, e-house Research Institute think tank center data show that from January 1 to 23, the national 100 cities of new commercial housing transaction area of 17.57 million square meters, down 20% from the previous month, down 44% year on year.The more than 40% year-on-year decline is related to the higher base of the same period last year, but also reflects the current difficult housing market.”Mortgage rates and other factors, the market sentiment has been boosted, more people look at the project, but the real start of the people did not increase significantly, just need to wait for prices to further bottom.”A housing enterprise said.It is worth paying attention to that the cold and hot differentiation of the property market in different areas is becoming more and more obvious.In Shanghai and other core cities, due to the strong demand for housing, high-end projects are popular and other factors, the new home market transaction in January with the same month were up;But quzhou, Xi ‘an, Guiyang, Jiujiang, Xuchang, Huainan and other 14 cities, January new home sales area fell by more than 50%.At present, there are many positive signals from the credit side, and local governments have also offered stimulus policies, but it will take some time for real transmission to the housing sector.Real estate developers are looking forward to a rebound in the property market, but it will last for some time.In the past year of 2021, the national housing market regulation policies were as high as 651 times, setting a new record. Since the fourth quarter, local stimulus policies have significantly increased, but the national housing market is still hovering at a low temperature.Recently, easy house research institute think tank center released “100 city residential transaction monitoring report” shows that from January 1 to 23 this year, the national 100 new commercial residential transaction area of 17.57 million square meters, fell 20%, compared with the same period last year fell 44%.On this basis, it is estimated that the month-on-month decline of about 20%, year-on-year decline of about 40%.From the first-tier cities to the second and fourth tier cities, the low temperature of the property market swept the country, only a few core areas have picked up.Among them, from January 1 to 23, the first, second, third and fourth tier cities new home transaction area fell by 12%, 27% and 13%, compared with the same period of last year, fell by 28%, 46% and 45%.Overall, chengdu, Nanchong, Deyang and Ziyang, four cities in Sichuan province, the first 23 Days of January transaction growth rate of 5% compared with the previous year, down 11%.Among the 15 sample cities in Zhejiang province, the year-on-year decrease was 64% and the year-on-year decrease was 27%.Shandong, Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangdong all showed varying degrees of decline.Quzhou, a prefecture-level city in Zhejiang Province, saw the biggest month-on-month drop in new home sales in January, up to 75% and 67% year-on-year.In addition, xi ‘an, Guiyang, Jiujiang, Xuchang, Huainan, Changsha, Changchun, Jinjiang, Haining, Huai ‘an, Xuzhou and other 14 cities, the month-on-month decline of more than 50%;Sixty-eight cities, including Beijing, showed negative month-on-month performance.”On the whole, the housing transaction market in January is not good, the current cities are still in the cooling channel.”The above report believes that although the recent credit and other policies are generally relaxed, but to transmit to the housing sector, there is still a time lag.Ping An Securities Research Institute also found after statistics, although the policy has been gradually warming since September 2021, but in the first 21 trading days of January 2022, the average daily turnover of new homes in 50 key cities is still down 26.2% year-on-year, down 21% month-on-month.Southwest securities said that there are signs of warming in the north, and the overall sales of the country generally face cooling pressure.Property market in the trough of difficult climb, so that the real estate people mixed feelings.A TOP5 real estate company said that since the credit policy released a positive signal, the first-line sales market has more people to look at the house, but not many people to buy.Ultimately, the crux of the current market is a lack of confidence, new buyers are also on the sidelines, waiting for prices to dip further.Different cities, even different projects within the city, the survival situation is the same “fire and ice”.Some high-quality high-end projects in core cities will still be sought after, even by insiders of real estate enterprises;For projects with poor quality, it is not easy to ensure the return of funds and the operation of projects due to sluggish sales performance and strict supervision of superimposed pre-sale funds.Under the background of low property market temperature, from the central to the local level, various stimulus signals frequently appear.Recently, the Central bank announced the new LPR interest rate, the 1-year LPR decreased by 10BP, the 5-year LPR lowered for the first time in 21 months, but only decreased by 5BP, lower than market expectations.The reduction of 5-year LPR interest rate will help guide mortgage interest rate into a downward channel, reduce the mortgage cost of residents and promote the release of housing demand.From the specific city, credit “loose” situation is also frequent.According to more than 10 hot cities surveyed by CRIC, mortgage interest rates in most cities have been lowered, ranging from 10 bp to 50BP lower than at the end of 2021.Among them, suzhou first home mortgage interest rate below 5%, foreign banks for qualified civil servants can be as low as 4.55%.Lending cycle, due to the beginning of the major banks relatively adequate line, the overall lending cycle has been shortened.Among them, the loan cycle in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities is 1 ~ 2 months, suzhou, Changzhou and other places where the materials are ready to lend at the fastest one week.At the local government level, according to incomplete statistics, since January, 18 places have introduced stimulus policies for house purchases.Zhongtai Securities research report shows that as of January 23, Baoding, Yulin, Ma ‘anshan, Jinan, Hefei, Jiaxing and other 18 cities or urban areas, quietly issued relaxation policies, involving the reduction of provident fund down payment ratio, housing subsidies and other measures.On January 18, zigong City Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Sichuan province issued a document to relax the identification policy on the number of housing units and implement the identification standard of “only recognizing loans but not housing”.That is, no matter whether there is no housing, as long as there is no provident fund loan record or no outstanding business loan, can be the first suite of the way to buy a house, the down payment ratio from 40% down to 20%.”Supporting the market” with provident fund policies is also frequently seen in other cities. For example, Jinan cancelled the household registration restrictions on loans to provident fund in other places, Maanshan increased the loan limit of provident fund, and Beihai Ii reduced the down payment ratio to 40% for loans to apply for provident fund.In addition, Zhuzhou three children worker family application housing provident fund loans, the highest is expected to borrow 800,000 yuan.In the industry’s view, for core first – and second-tier cities, the population base and purchasing power are relatively strong, and easy credit is more like “icing on the cake”, providing space for the release of reasonable demand for self-use.For weak second – and third-tier cities with overdrawn demand and purchasing power, credit easing “cures the symptoms rather than the root cause”. Housing prices still face downward pressure due to high inventory and difficult de-stocking.In the data released by e-House Research Institute think tank Center, in the first 23 Days of January, there were 31 cities with positive month-on-month growth in new home sales, but less than the number of cities with negative growth.The outstanding performance is Kunshan, Wuhu, Jinhua, Xianning, Weihai, Jiayuguan, Taicang, Heze, Nanchong, Huizhou, Zhaoqing, Ziyang, Lhasa and other places, with a growth rate of more than 30%.The four first-tier cities are equally divided between hot and cold, with only Shanghai achieving positive growth in the same quarter.At the beginning of the New Year, Shanghai property market is very lively, the fifth batch of centralized housing for the end of the announcement, 57 projects sino-Japanese CD accounted for 63%;The sixth batch of 17,487 new houses was launched in succession, setting a new high of new house supply in Batches in Shanghai, and high-end projects were also warmly welcomed.The personage inside course of study expresses, Shanghai centralizes push dish is on one hand, more important is the market demand is strong.”Although New home sales in Beijing have declined, but the demand for housing in these two cities is actually bigger than imagined, the market performance is better than shenzhen, Guangzhou, these first-tier cities, from the perspective of classified regulation, the follow-up of the two cities to prevent market overheating.”According to Tongce Consulting, the hot housing market in Shanghai is caused by a long-term mismatch between supply and demand, and the core factor is a large number of new housing demand.On the one hand, the natural inflow of population settled down, bringing huge demand for housing;On the other hand, the lifting of restrictions on home purchases has brought a lot of “domestic demand” for home purchases.Overall, however, the point of warming around the property market has not formed an obvious stimulus.Tianfeng Securities said that the current market fundamentals did not form a trend to improve, or with the policy transmission still need some time, the existing policy relaxation is relatively limited, most cities do not involve in the purchase limit lending, the market will continue to adjust in the short term.(Zhang Hui, Chief Editor)

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