Carbon peak carbon neutrality will reshape the pattern of regional economic development

Carbon neutrality originated from global climate change and its international governance, and has become an influential factor of regional competition and systematic changes in economic and social development.Since the Industrial Revolution, human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have led to global warming, which has brought about a series of adverse effects such as frequent extreme weather and increased losses from natural disasters, hindering the progress of human civilization.Carbon neutrality has become a common value orientation for all countries and a new benchmark for regional and even national competition.Issues related to carbon neutrality strategic cooperation, international standard setting, low-carbon economy and trade negotiations determine that the leader will have a moral high ground and a greater voice in the international arena.In August 2021, the website of the National Meteorological Administration released information that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group I “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis” report pointed out that the research found that the temperature warming is accelerating.The average temperature rise in the next 20 years will reach or even exceed 1.5℃.Unless there is immediate, rapid and large-scale carbon reduction, warming will not be limited to 1.5 ° C or 2 ° C.When global temperature rises by 1.5℃, heat waves will increase, warm seasons will lengthen and cold seasons will shorten.When global temperatures rise by 2 ° C, extreme heat will become more frequent, reaching thresholds for agricultural production and human health.Climate change will affect rainfall characteristics: rainfall and flood increase in some areas;Others are drier;While precipitation increases in high latitudes, it decreases in most sub-tropical regions, with varying effects in the monsoon belt.Sea levels will continue to rise in the 21st century, resulting in more frequent and more severe flooding in low-lying coastal areas and coastal erosion.Warming will increase permafrost melting, reduce seasonal snow cover, melt ice caps and reduce summer sea ice in the Arctic.Ocean changes are manifested as ocean warming, frequent heat waves, ocean acidification and decreased oxygen content, which affect both Marine organisms and Marine ecosystems.Cities will amplify the effects of climate change, such as higher temperatures (cities are warmer than their neighbours), flooding from heavy rainfall and rising sea levels in coastal cities.China will become hotter and wetter as a result of global warming, according to McKinsey’s “Tackling Climate Change: China’s Response.”If emissions continue to grow at the current rate, 10 million to 45 million people will be exposed to extreme heat in the future.By 2050, the average annual GDP loss will be $10,000-1.5 trillion.Therefore, it is necessary to vigorously, rapidly and continuously reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions as soon as possible to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.Carbon neutrality is a new area of regional competition.Carbon neutrality is the strategic goal of nearly 100 countries, and regional green assistance between developed and developing countries has become the focus of cooperation.In 2021, the United States will return to international agreements such as the Paris Agreement, aimed at reinvigorating international influence and leadership and revitalizing the American economy through, among other things, the development of clean energy.International carbon-neutral exchanges, negotiations, discussions and cooperation, exemplified by the China-Eu High-level Forum on Green Cooperation, will be conducted in a larger scope and among more member states.All countries are actively planning low-carbon economy, which will affect the international political and economic trend.The development and utilization of renewable energy is the key to carbon neutrality.Carbon neutral energy strategies of various countries focus on reducing the share of fossil energy in power generation and coal consumption, while increasing the share of clean energy such as wind power, hydropower, photovoltaic, hydrogen and biomass in power generation.Investments in clean energy are among the most efficient and secure policies for economic recovery.The United Kingdom, Japan and other countries have announced plans to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, and new energy vehicles with digital, intelligent, new infrastructure, low emissions and other characteristics have ushered in more investment and market opportunities.Carbon neutrality is not only an international competition, but also a systemic change in China’s economy and society.Carbon neutrality provides opportunities for international cooperation in related industries, including guiding international green capital flow, human resources employment, and green industry and renewable energy start-up investment and financing.Countries are actively developing green finance to drive post-COVID-19 economic recovery;Countries have introduced incentive measures, provided financial support and tax incentives to enterprises, increased input in technological research and development and industrialization, developed green industry funds, and guided nongovernmental investment to promote the comprehensive transformation and upgrading of industries oriented by sustainable development.Developing green finance has become the consensus of all countries, and the green finance market is gradually maturing.It is worth noting that developing countries are under great pressure in green transformation and upgrading, investment in green industries and innovation in green technologies.At the general debate of the 75th SESSION of the United Nations General Assembly, President Xi Jinping proposed the goal of “peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060”.At the 2020 Climate Ambition Summit, President Xi Jinping announced:”By 2030, China’s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will drop by more than 65 percent compared with 2005, the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 25 percent, the forest stock will increase by 6 billion cubic meters compared with 2005, and the total installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach over 1.2 billion kilowatts.”The “Opinions on Implementing the New Development Concept to achieve peak Carbon neutrality” and the “2030 Peak Carbon Action Plan” have been released successively, which constitute the top-level design of China’s peak carbon and carbon neutrality.The inclusion of carbon neutrality in the overall economic and social development and ecological progress will give us great confidence in the global governance of climate change.China has a long way to go to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Carbon neutrality is a brand new development path, and China cannot follow the natural carbon peak model of developed countries. We must independently explore, seize opportunities, meet challenges, and open a new chapter in a changing situation.In recent years, China’s carbon emission intensity has declined significantly, with a 48.1 percent reduction in 2019 compared with 2005.China is embarking on an all-round reform in all areas of the economy and society. From industries to sectors, and from the central to local governments, China is exploring feasible plans and paths to tap potential opportunities for transformational development and achieve high-quality development.Carbon neutrality will reshape regional comparative Advantage and Competition Pattern Carbon neutrality has become an influential factor in reshaping regional development pattern.Regional economic theories such as industrial transfer and comparative advantage will be rewritten.Carbon peak and carbon neutralization will reshape the value of productivity factors and their utilization methods. For example, the development of agriculture in desertification areas is restricted by water resources, but it has favorable conditions for the development of diversified industries such as “photovoltaic +”.The layout of cement industry with high carbon emission will appear new changes rather than necessarily “gradient transfer”.On the whole, the carbon neutrality requirements caused by climate change, the development of e-commerce brought by information technology, the convenience of freight transportation brought by high-speed railway and the formation of new modes of sharing economy will bring great challenges to the traditional regional economic theories such as gradient transfer and regional comparative advantage in regional economic development.Information technology facilitates the exchange of information between commodity production and consumption, thus changing the situation of “information asymmetry”;The development of e-commerce has changed the limitations of “the first kilometer” and “the last kilometer” of logistics;The rapid development of high-speed rail will change the distribution characteristics of cities and residents;The new development mode of sharing economy reduces logistics cost obviously.All these constitute an important factor in reshaping the pattern of regional development.Carbon neutrality will reshape the regional economy and all economies.Developed countries have a high level of economic development, a large proportion of low-carbon industries and advanced technologies, making it less difficult to achieve carbon neutrality.Middle Eastern countries, Russia, Australia and other resource-based economies rely on crude oil and mineral products for a large part of their national economic income, so carbon neutrality faces medium – and long-term challenges and greater challenges to fiscal sustainability.In economies such as China and Japan, where high-quality energy resources are scarce, the carbon-neutral revolution offers an opportunity to reduce external dependence.In conclusion, factors such as the dependence of different regions on fossil energy, manufacturing level and position in the global industrial chain, and technological innovation capacity will affect the response efficiency of the carbon neutral revolution.Industrial transfer between cities will appear a new trend.As China’s carbon reduction campaign advances, many enterprises will move to small and medium-sized cities.Most of the industries transferred from developed cities are energy, raw material and labor intensive industries, even those with high carbon intensity.Under the strong demand of economic growth, small and medium-sized cities are willing to or even actively seek to “undertake”.In the process of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in small and medium-sized cities, project emission reduction is very important, but there is a problem of balance between cost and benefit in project construction.Local financial resources for low-carbon transition remain limited relative to the huge financial needs.The economic conditions for large-scale application of clean and low-carbon technologies in small and medium-sized cities are also not available.If there is no financing mechanism for the innovation, transfer and diffusion of low-carbon clean technology, it will result in the wide application of low-carbon clean technology in small and medium-sized cities.Renewable energy becomes the attraction of industry shift.The regional difference of renewable energy resource distribution will bring about the change of industry pattern.China has built uHVDC transmission channels to deliver clean energy from the west, and Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other provinces have become clean energy delivery bases.Renewable energy, such as solar energy and water energy, is distributed in southwest China and becomes an attractive factor for high-capacity industrial agglomeration and production.Carbon neutrality will lead to a “westward march” of industries, new changes in the industrial and supply chains, and changes in the production of crude steel, alumina, ethylene and other industries along with the supply of renewable energy, which will affect the regional economic map.Carbon neutrality requires changes to urban buildings and infrastructure.China’s urban building energy consumption accounts for about 27%;Due to historical reasons, the “lifeline” project is insufficient, so it is urgent to coordinate the construction of resilient cities and sponge cities.The low-carbon transformation of infrastructure in small and medium-sized cities is a heavy task, and the transformation of winter heating system into clean heating in the north also requires huge investment.It is also an urgent problem for different cities to adopt carbon neutral treatment process and reduce energy consumption in each link of sewage treatment.It is particularly difficult for small and medium-sized cities to introduce “dual carbon” technical talents, although the information age has created convenience for talents to “seek for use but not for possession”.What needs to be noted is that the risk of unbalanced regional development will increase.Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Henan are among the top five provinces in terms of total carbon emissions, facing greater pressure from carbon emission reduction and green and low-carbon transformation.The existing carbon peak and carbon neutral paths and scenarios in big cities are difficult to adapt to the low-carbon development of small and medium-sized cities. Small and medium-sized cities should find a new way to adapt to local conditions.With the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, the central and western regions will face many challenges, such as the decline of regional ecological environment carrying capacity, the weak competitiveness of resource-based enterprises, the lack of innovation ability of enterprises, the shortage of scientific and technological talents, and the imperfect system and mechanism of green development.Three, on the regional climate change, promote carbon neutral vision of thinking to global strategy of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the world as a whole from the big change in one hundred, deep understanding the complex international environment brings new challenges of new contradictions, deep understanding on the new features of social development and change of main contradiction new demands, strengthen the consciousness of opportunity and risk awareness,We should accurately recognize change, respond to it in a scientific way, and take the initiative to seek it. We should have the courage to turn crises into opportunities, and strive to achieve higher-quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable and more secure development.Local governments should draw up action plans for peaking carbon emissions by 2030, get a clear picture of the stock and growth of these projects, formulate action maps for peaking carbon emissions, specify peaking time and construction plans for industries, formulate supporting policy tools and measures, and promote market-based trading of carbon emission rights, so that carbon emissions from energy-intensive industries can peak first.We will raise standards for energy conservation in the construction sector, develop a low-carbon transportation system, encourage urban and rural residents to change the way they use energy, guide the innovation and application of energy-saving and carbon-reducing technologies, and improve the green, low-carbon and circular development system.Carbon neutrality will force technological progress in energy-intensive industries and accelerate the development of industrial chains.According to the Calculation of the Institute for Environmental Planning of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, when the carbon peak is reached in 2030, the whole society is expected to invest 8.5 trillion yuan in zero-carbon industries.Technological progress will boost total factor productivity, creating 10.9 trillion yuan of GDP.Industries such as new energy and new materials and their upstream and downstream sectors, as well as electric vehicles and biofuels, will usher in a period of rapid development and become new growth points.Foster new economic growth points.Carbon neutral industries have huge development potential, which will greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, improve human living environment, promote high-quality economic and social development, and greatly increase the number and quality of employment.The International Renewable Energy Agency predicts that low-carbon development will create more jobs.With a goal of keeping temperature rise below 2 ° C, jobs created in carbon-neutral industries will reduce China’s unemployment rate by 0.3 percent by 2030, with renewable energy providing the most jobs.The new jobs are cleaner and friendlier than those in coal production.According to the National Climate Strategy Center, by the end of 2020, there will be around 4.5 million people working in the renewable energy sector in China, about the same number working in coal production.The number of jobs in the low-carbon sector could reach 63 million by 2030, and the renewable energy employment gap of about 58.5 million will greatly increase the number and quality of jobs.To achieve carbon neutrality, we need to optimize the energy mix, control traditional energy consumption and vigorously develop clean energy.China is rich in solar energy and wind energy resources, and power generation is the main form of solar energy and wind energy utilization.Over the past five years, China has added about 30 million kilowatts of wind power annually as technology matures and power generation costs fall.By 2030, China’s installed wind and solar power will reach over 1.2 billion kilowatts.The development of clean energy can also reduce dependence on foreign oil and gas energy imports, reduce the loss of extreme weather and climate disasters, reduce China’s dependence on oil exporting countries, ensure China’s energy security, and enhance the independence of production and manufacturing, which is of great significance.Afforestation projects will be implemented to increase the carbon sink of ecosystems.Forest is the main body of terrestrial ecosystem and the most important carbon storage pool.Through photosynthesis, vegetation can absorb and fix carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and play a huge carbon sink function.We should make full use of sloping land, wasteland and abandoned mines to further expand forest area and increase the total amount of forest and grass resources.Large-scale afforestation, continue to implement the “three north shelter forest”, returning farmland to forest and grassland, natural forest protection, control sand, the grassland ecological restoration, protection and restoration of wetland, such as key project, steadily push forward the urban and rural greening, promote the annual monitoring and evaluation of forest resources and forest carbon sink metering monitoring work, actively explore to promote grassland carbon sinks trade.Enterprises, public institutions, organizations and individuals are encouraged to increase the duty rate of voluntary tree planting by means of afforestation, tending and management, nature conservation, construction and maintenance, infrastructure, donation of funds and materials, and voluntary services.We will continue to implement the model of “Internet + voluntary tree planting” to increase public awareness of voluntary tree planting and their sense of happiness in participating in afforestation, unswervingly follow the path of ecological priority and green development, and continuously increase the carbon sink of the ecosystem.Carbon peak is an important way for China to implement the new development concept, construct a new development pattern and build a modern economic system of green, low-carbon and circular development.We should make innovations in theories, technologies and institutions to promote the transformation and upgrading of economic, energy and industrial structures, promote systematic economic and social changes, and achieve high-quality economic development.(Reproduced with authorization by Lvhui Media)

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