The stock market, the futures market together up coal plate valuation repair market or continue to strengthen


February 8, the coal stock market, futures market rose.The coal mining index rose 5.74 per cent, the biggest gainer among the major concept sectors.Jin Kong coal and Anyuan coal both rose by their daily limit, with Ping coal up 9.36 per cent and Shanxi coking coal up 8.63 per cent.Coal futures “three brothers” also strong performance, thermal coal futures main contract trading limit, coking coal futures main contract up more than 7%, coke futures main contract up more than 4%.Industry analysis believes that short-term support coal rebound catalyst more plate valuation repair market or will continue to strengthen.Plate rebound catalyst more fully February 7 day and night, black industry chain related varieties have risen, thermal coal rose the most, up 8.66%, coking coal, coke, respectively up 5.90%, 2.86%.For futures rose in the night, CITIC Securities analysis that, on the one hand, by the post-power coal price high and stable support, short-term coal prices beyond seasonal expectations, strong performance;On the other hand, demand-side policies further catalyzed market sentiment.Demand-side policies mainly come from the optimization of carbon reduction policies, which is good for the expected improvement of coal demand.Although the first working day after the festival, part of the coking coal and coke prices have been reduced, but the high price of thermal coal is stable.The port inventory is still around 4.5 million tons, lower than the level of the same period in the past two years and still in a low inventory state.Citic Securities believes that with the further release of post-holiday demand and the current strong coal price expectations, or stimulate more demand for replenishment, coal prices are easy to rise.In the medium and long term, although the delay of carbon peak time in the iron and steel industry has directly improved the demand expectation of “double coke”, the increase of electricity consumption in the black smelting plate is also the largest industry category in the increase of industrial electricity consumption, so the demand for thermal coal has also increased.In addition, the international oil price and other energy prices continue to rise, also contribute to the domestic coal price expectations.Citic Securities, these factors are expected to become short-term plate rebound catalyst.At present, the leading company has obvious valuation attraction, driven by the optimism of the futures market, its expected plate valuation repair market will continue to strengthen.Performance exceeding the expected increase window or has been the performance of the coal company, recently there are many more than expected performance.Orchid Kechuang, Anyuan Coal industry, mountain coal International, Jingyuan coal power and other enterprises have disclosed 2021 performance forecast, 2021 profit growth center is 514%, -125%(loss), 475%, 62%, in the fourth quarter of 2021 quarter-on-quarter growth rate is 25%, 186%, 230%, 44%, performance generally exceed expectations.According to the disclosure of the performance forecast of 32 coal companies, Guotai Junan is expected to 2021 profit center of 138 billion yuan, compared with 2020 76.8 billion yuan year-on-year growth of 80%, the overall profitability is better than expected;From the perspective of the fourth quarter, the profit center in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 32.9 billion yuan, up 100% year-on-year and down 19% quarter-on-quarter. The main reason lies in the impairment and large cost provision of most enterprises in the fourth quarter of last year, which led to the quarter-on-quarter decline in the performance of the fourth quarter of last year, but the year-on-year growth rate was better than the overall level of the whole year.Not only that, coal shares of the lower proportion of institutional positions, high dividend + transformation has more space to increase holdings.Guotai Junan research report analysis, in addition to power investment energy source, Meijin energy, the number of fund holdings of coal stocks have declined in different proportions, overall situation, the proportion of institutional holdings of coal stocks has dropped to a two-year low.It believes that in February 2022 CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal Q5500 long cooperative price of 725 yuan/ton, the new mechanism of high long cooperative price can be maintained and significantly increased year-on-year, capital expenditure – cash flow – finance – profit – dividend “will appear sustainable optimization, with the subsequent dividend exceeded expectations and the gradual realization of the company’s transformation,Institutional positions of some companies will usher in space for improvement.The reporter Chen hui

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